Bitcoin, gold and the dollar on edge as markets count down to the Fed's December meeting
Bitcoin is nursing losses below $79,000, gold is struggling at the $4,000 line and the dollar is near its 2026 high as traders price in another possible US rate hike at the Federal Reserve's December meeting.
Three of the world's most watched assets are pulling in different directions this week, and all three are being driven by the same question: what will the US Federal Reserve do at its next meeting on 8–9 December? Bitcoin has fallen below $79,000, gold is fighting to hold the $4,000 an ounce line, and the US dollar is hovering close to its highest level of 2026. Figures in this post were checked at about 1:00 pm PKT on Friday, 30 October 2026.
The Fed's October meeting, which ended on Wednesday, kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% — but the 10-2 vote carried a warning. Two policymakers, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, voted for an immediate quarter-point increase because inflation is still running well above the central bank's 2% target. The Fed's preferred price gauge, the PCE index, rose 3.6% over the year to September, with core inflation at 3.1%, while the US economy grew a stronger-than-expected 3.4% in the third quarter — a combination that gives the Fed little reason to ease.
That is why December now dominates market thinking. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders put the chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December at roughly 75%, and all 100 economists in a recent Reuters poll expected rates to rise at that meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh has refused to give guidance either way, saying decisions will follow the data — which means every US release between now and December could move prices.
Bitcoin has been hit from two sides at once. Higher-for-longer rate expectations tend to drain appetite for risk assets, and this week's suspected Binance hack — in which billions of dollars of crypto were taken — knocked confidence further: bitcoin fell about 3.2% on Thursday evening to trade below $79,000. Gold, normally a shelter in nervous times, has also been sliding: spot prices dipped below $4,000 an ounce in Asian trade on Friday, extending a fall of about 3.5% during October, as the 10-year US Treasury yield near 5% makes yield-free metal harder to justify. The dollar index, meanwhile, stood near 101.8, close to its 2026 peak.
What could happen next depends on the data and on 9 December. If inflation stays hot and the Fed does raise rates, the dollar and yields could stay firm, which could keep pressure on gold and on crypto prices. If upcoming figures — next week brings US manufacturing and services surveys, job openings, jobless claims and the October payrolls report — come in softer than expected, hike bets could be trimmed, which could relieve some of that pressure. None of these outcomes is certain, and market pricing has swung sharply before: the odds of an October hike, for example, moved from above 70% to below 30% within weeks earlier this autumn.
This post is market news information only, not financial advice.
