Cyclone Murasu likely to hit Andhra coast on 3 November, IMD warns, days after Cyclone Arnab
A depression over the Bay of Bengal is forecast to strengthen into Cyclone Murasu and reach the Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur by the early hours of 3 November, the India Meteorological Department said on Saturday, with very heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous sea conditions expected.
A fresh weather system over the Bay of Bengal is forecast to strengthen into a cyclone named Murasu and reach the Andhra Pradesh coast by the morning of Tuesday, 3 November, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday, only days after Cyclone Arnab battered the same coastline.
The system began as a low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea on 29 October and moved west-northwestwards before intensifying into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal on Saturday. The IMD said it was very likely to become a deep depression within 12 hours and then strengthen into a cyclonic storm on Sunday, 1 November.
If it develops as forecast, the system will be named Murasu, a name contributed by India meaning a traditional drum in Tamil. It would be the second cyclonic storm to form over the Bay of Bengal this year, after Arnab, whose landfall near Visakhapatnam on 28 October brought strong winds and flooding to Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.
Late on Saturday, the depression lay about 960 kilometres southeast of Chennai, 980 kilometres southeast of Visakhapatnam, 1,030 kilometres southeast of Machilipatnam and 1,080 kilometres southeast of Ongole, according to the IMD bulletin reported by the Times of India. It was moving west-northwestwards at about 30 kilometres per hour.
The forecast track takes the system towards the west-central Bay of Bengal by 2 November and towards the Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur by the early hours of 3 November. The IMD said the system was expected to strengthen further into a severe cyclonic storm, with wind speeds of 100 to 110 kilometres per hour and gusts reaching 120 kilometres per hour, although IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra was also quoted giving a lower range of 80 to 90 kilometres per hour, gusting to 100, for the approach to the coast, reflecting how forecasts are refined as a system develops.
Rainfall is expected to build well before any landfall. The IMD has forecast very heavy rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema on 2 and 3 November, with isolated extremely heavy falls, and heavy to very heavy rainfall in south Odisha on 3 and 4 November. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe are also likely to receive heavy rain, with heavy rainfall at isolated places in Tiruvallur district in Tamil Nadu.
Odisha, still dealing with the aftermath of Arnab, faces a second test. IMD Bhubaneswar director Manorama Mohanty said Odisha could face a relatively lesser impact because the projected path lies further south, towards Andhra Pradesh, but the state has still issued a yellow warning for heavy rain in Ganjam and Gajapati districts on Monday, both of which are still recovering from severe flooding triggered by Arnab. Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi reviewed the situation at the special relief commissioner’s office on Saturday, with officials saying rescue and relief operations in Arnab-affected areas were being intensified while preparations were made for the next storm.
Sea conditions are expected to become dangerous across a large area. The IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the sea until at least Wednesday afternoon and has urged those already at sea to return to harbour. Mohapatra warned that from Sunday onwards, the entire west-central Bay of Bengal, the southeast Bay of Bengal and parts of the central Bay of Bengal would be disastrous or devastating for small boats and ships, which should avoid those waters.
An earlier IMD bulletin on 31 October issued a pre-cyclone watch, or yellow message, for the Andhra Pradesh coast, and the department said a more precise location, timing and advisory would follow as fresh assessments were issued. Mohapatra told the Times of India that the system was expected to cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast on 3 November, but that the exact landfall location could not yet be determined because the system was still several days away from the coast.
For coastal communities, the coming days will therefore be about preparation rather than certainty. The track, intensity and rainfall totals may still shift, and residents are being advised to follow IMD bulletins and state government advisories as the depression strengthens, approaches the coast on 2 November, and makes its expected landfall on the morning of 3 November.
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