OPEC+ agrees in principle to keep December oil output targets steady, sources tell Reuters
Seven core OPEC+ producers have agreed in principle at Sunday's online meeting to leave their December oil output targets unchanged, sources told Reuters, holding policy steady while Gulf exports remain disrupted by the Iran war.
Seven core members of the OPEC+ producer alliance have agreed in principle to keep their oil output targets unchanged for December, three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters after an online meeting on Sunday, 1 November. The decision, reported by Business Standard and Europe Says from the Reuters account, keeps near-term supply policy on hold and matches expectations that the group would make no further output adjustments until next year.
The seven producers at the meeting were Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, the core group that has been setting monthly production levels through the second half of 2026. All three sources declined to be identified, and the agreement is described as in principle rather than a formal announcement, so it should be read as the expected outcome of the meeting pending any official statement from the group itself.
The context for the hold is a market still shaped by war and disruption. Gulf members of the alliance have been working to restore exports disrupted for months by the war with Iran, but most are still pumping well below their output targets, according to the Reuters reporting. In that setting, leaving targets unchanged does not by itself add barrels to the market, because the constraint for several members is not the quota on paper but their ability to produce and ship.
The decision extends a pause that has now lasted several months. In September, OPEC+ completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023, and the seven producers then rolled their September production levels forward into October and November without change. December will now be the third month in a row at the same required levels if the in-principle agreement is confirmed.
A further layer of cuts of about 2 million barrels per day, covering most members of the wider alliance, remains in place through the end of 2026. That layer is separate from the monthly decisions of the seven core producers and is part of why the group's overall supply restraint remains substantial even after the September rollback.
Attention now turns to what comes after December. Reuters reported in July that the group was likely to make no changes to its targets during the fourth quarter as it turns its focus to negotiations over 2027 quotas, and the group still needs to finalise a review of members' production capacity during this quarter before setting the 2027 baselines that will determine future quotas. Those baselines will shape how any later unwinding of the remaining cuts is shared out, which is why the capacity review is politically sensitive among members.
The next major date on the calendar is the group's full ministerial meeting on 29 November, when ministers from the wider alliance are expected to consider the framework applying beyond the end of the year. The seven core producers, meanwhile, continue to meet monthly to assess market conditions, and their next review after December's levels are set will be watched for any signal on January.
Oil prices have been volatile around these decisions. Brent crude futures for December, which expired on Friday, closed up 2.76 dollars, or 2.4 percent, at 117.64 dollars a barrel after touching a high of 118 dollars, according to the Reuters-based reporting. The strength reflects concern about supply through the Strait of Hormuz, where a tanker caught fire last week, as well as strikes on energy infrastructure and the risk of further escalation in the Middle East.
For consumers, the immediate effect of a steady December target is limited. Pump prices in importing countries respond more to crude prices, refining margins and currency moves than to a single OPEC+ meeting, and with several Gulf producers already below target, the decision is unlikely to change physical supply in the near term. Its significance is more as a signal: the alliance is choosing stability over either adding supply into a tight market or cutting further while its own members struggle to meet existing targets.
What could still change the picture is a formal OPEC statement confirming or qualifying the in-principle agreement, any sign of how the 2027 capacity review is progressing, and developments in the Gulf, where attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure remain a live risk to output. Traders will also be watching the wider week's events, including the United States midterm elections on 3 November, which could shift the diplomatic backdrop to the region's tensions.
Market figures in this post were checked at 8:05am PKT on Sunday, 1 November 2026.
This post is market news information only, not financial advice.
