Pakistan's exports have declined by around 1 billion dollars following the suspension of bilateral and transit trade with Afghanistan, the Ministry of Commerce has told a parliamentary committee, acknowledging the economic cost of the restrictions while insisting that national security must take precedence over commercial interests.
Briefing the National Assembly Standing Committee on Commerce on Wednesday, Commerce Secretary Jawad Paul said the government could not afford further loss of human lives in the name of trade. The committee, chaired by Javed Hanif Khan, had questioned the rationale for suspending trade, highlighting the loss of export opportunities and the disruption of trade routes connecting Pakistan with Central Asian countries.
Paul told the committee that the suspension had affected Pakistan's exports to Afghanistan and disrupted access to Central Asian markets, particularly for agricultural products such as oranges and potatoes. He said the restrictions had been imposed on national security grounds, which remained the government's foremost priority, and that the security of citizens could not be traded for commercial gain.
The ministry put a figure on the wider damage as well. It told the committee that Pakistan had incurred an estimated 387 million dollars in trade losses during July to October alone, as a result of disruptions associated with the regional conflict. A separate report, citing ministry documents, put the total export decline at 1.3 billion dollars over the past 13 months, with transit revenue down by 200 million dollars.
The figures are consistent with what traders on the ground have been saying for months. The Pak-Afghan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry has said the trade blockade has cost Pakistani exporters around 1 billion dollars in the past 10 months, noting that Pakistan's annual exports to Afghanistan are worth about 1.5 billion dollars. Exports to Central Asian countries through Afghanistan, worth around 800 million dollars a year, have also been hit, with losses estimated at about 225 million dollars.
The closure has been in place for more than a year. Pakistan stopped customs processing at Torkham, Ghulam Khan, Kharlachi and Angoor Adda on 12 October 2025, and closed the Chaman border on 15 October, after a round of cross-border clashes. Afghanistan then declared a ban on trade with Pakistan in November. From October 2025 to April 2026, about 10,000 transit containers remained stranded in Pakistan, racking up demurrage and detention charges.
The committee also discussed Pakistan's bilateral trade suspension with India, which has remained in place since 2019, and the broader question of how the country replaces markets it has lost. Afghanistan has shifted most of its trade and transit business away from Pakistan towards Iran and Central Asian countries, according to the ministry's documents, dealing a blow to Pakistan's role as the region's trade corridor.
Despite the disruptions, the ministry told the committee that it expects Pakistan's merchandise exports to reach 35 billion dollars during fiscal year 2026-27. Paul said total exports, including services, stood at approximately 40 billion dollars in fiscal year 2025-26, while merchandise exports were around 32 billion dollars.
The debate in the committee captured the tension at the heart of the policy. Lawmakers pressed the commerce secretary on the cost to exporters, to farmers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab whose produce once moved across the border, and to the thousands of people whose livelihoods depended on the trade. The ministry's answer was that the human cost of reopening the border without security guarantees would be higher, and that the government was not prepared to pay it.
For now, there is no sign of a reopening. Talks between the two sides were declared effectively over on 7 November after big differences persisted, and the closure looks set to continue into its second year. The question for Pakistan's exporters is whether new routes and new markets can be found fast enough to replace the billion dollars that the Afghan suspension has already cost. Figures in this report were checked at 10:11 PKT on 12 November 2026.
This post is market news information only, not financial advice.
