Pakistan faces winter gas crunch as Qatar extends LNG force majeure until end of December
Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik has confirmed QatarEnergy's LNG supply suspension will run until 29 December, leaving Pakistan planning 10 cargoes against an estimated winter requirement of 20 as household demand is set to surge.
Pakistan is heading towards a difficult winter for gas supplies after QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries until the end of December, a move confirmed on Saturday by Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Ali Pervaiz Malik.
The minister confirmed to The News that Qatar had extended the suspension until 29 December, leaving Islamabad with a narrowing window to line up replacement cargoes before household demand surges in the coldest months. The extension was reported by Geo on Saturday afternoon, and it is the latest step in a supply disruption that has been running since the spring.
QatarEnergy first declared force majeure in March, after its Ras Laffan liquefaction complex was damaged amid the war in the region that began in late February. The suspension has been extended repeatedly since then, and Reuters reported earlier this week that clients in Pakistan and Bangladesh, as well as Italy's Edison, had been told the halt would run until the end of the year.
For Pakistan, the timing could hardly be worse. December and January are the peak months for household gas use, when families rely on piped gas for heating and cooking. Officials at the Sui gas companies expect demand in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to rise roughly threefold, from about 500 million cubic feet a day to 1,500 million cubic feet a day, during those two months.
In Sindh and Balochistan, domestic demand is projected to roughly double, from about 300 million cubic feet a day to 600 million cubic feet a day. Taken together, the seasonal jump means the system will need far more gas at exactly the moment when one of its main contracted sources remains suspended.
Against that demand, the government is planning to arrange 10 LNG cargoes for the two peak winter months, against an estimated requirement of 20 cargoes, nine in December and 11 in January. The gap between what is planned and what is needed is the central problem facing energy officials as winter approaches.
If the shortfall cannot be closed, the squeeze is expected to fall first on large consumers. Power plants, industrial units, fertiliser plants, cement factories and compressed natural gas (CNG) stations are all in line for possible curtailments, according to the reporting, as officials try to protect household supplies.
The cost of filling the gap is another major concern. Spot-market LNG has been trading at roughly double the price Pakistan pays under its long-term Qatari contracts, and earlier estimates put the winter import bill at more than one billion dollars, with some planning figures closer to 1.29 billion dollars for the November-to-February period. Those figures are planning estimates, not final bills, and the actual cost will depend on how many cargoes are secured and at what price.
The government has been trying to bridge the gap with a mix of measures, including seeking spot cargoes and arranging individual deliveries with the help of intermediaries to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. A small number of cargoes did arrive in September and October, but they cover only a fraction of winter needs.
What happens next will depend on whether further cargoes can be secured in time, whether the security situation around Hormuz eases enough for normal deliveries to resume, and how cold the winter turns out to be. For now, officials are warning of a tight winter, and households and businesses alike are being urged to prepare for possible supply pressure in December and January.
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