President Donald Trump has threatened to immediately double tariffs on Mexican imports unless Mexico stops migrant caravans walking north towards the United States, warning that the groups "will not be accepted" and that there will be "no leniency".
The warning came in a post on his Truth Social platform on Thursday, days after last week's midterm elections, in which the president said a new wave of migration was under way. "Here we go again!" he wrote. "MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED."
Trump said Mexico, the governor of Texas, the US Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had all been informed of his position. He did not say which tariffs would be doubled, whether existing trade exemptions would remain in place, or when any new duties would take effect.
An estimated 1,500 people, mostly from Central America, set off on Tuesday from Tapachula, a city in southern Mexico near the Guatemalan border, according to Reuters. The group is hoping that the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections could open pathways for them to live and work in the United States. A second, smaller caravan of around 100 people is also reported to be travelling north.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pushed back against Trump's account of the situation at her daily morning news conference on Thursday. She said no migrant caravan had reached the northern border since Trump returned to office in January 2025, and that Mexican authorities were managing the two groups currently moving through southern Mexico.
"Since President Trump came into office, no migrant caravan has reached the northern border," Sheinbaum said, while acknowledging that the groups were on the move and that her government was working to manage them.
The threat lands at a sensitive moment for trade between the two countries. Mexico remains the United States' largest overall trading partner, with bilateral commerce totalling $96.34 billion in September alone, and the two governments are currently negotiating trade issues, including potential tariff reductions on Mexican steel and other manufactured products.
Existing US tariffs on Mexican imports already weigh heavily on that trade. Goods that do not qualify for preferential treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) generally face tariffs of 25%, while steel and aluminium products imported from Mexico face duties of 50%, alongside other sector-specific tariffs.
The dispute over the caravans also comes as Washington and Mexico City renegotiate the terms of their free trade deal, after Trump chose in July not to extend the USMCA. Any doubling of tariffs would raise the prospect of another major disruption to North American trade and to the cross-border supply chains that link factories on both sides of the border.
US Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin responded on social media following Trump's tariff threat, while Mexican officials continued to insist that caravans were being stopped well short of the border. The episode underlined how migration and trade have become inseparable in the relationship between the two neighbours.
What happens next will depend on whether Mexico can show that the caravans have been halted and on whether Trump follows through on a threat that, for now, remains a warning posted on social media rather than a formal trade measure. With negotiations under way and the caravans still moving, both governments have reason to keep talking — but the president's message leaves little doubt about the pressure he intends to apply.
