Egypt warns a second round of the Iran war would be 'more dangerous, more destructive'
Egypt's foreign minister told the Manama Dialogue that he is extremely worried a new escalation in the US-Iran war would be more destructive than the first round and would lead nowhere.
Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty has warned that a new escalation in the war between the United States and Iran would be more destructive than the fighting that has already taken place, saying he is extremely worried about where a second round would lead. He was speaking on Saturday at the IISS Manama Dialogue security summit in Bahrain, one of the region's most closely watched annual gatherings of defence and foreign ministers.
“The second round will be more dangerous, more destructive, and it will lead to nowhere. We have to draw lessons from the past,” Abdelatty said, according to Reuters. The warning, also carried by The National and Al Jazeera's live coverage, sets out Cairo's fear in unusually blunt terms: that another exchange of strikes would not settle the conflict, but would deepen it.
Abdelatty tied the warning directly to the security of the Gulf states, arguing that the region cannot be treated as a series of separate problems. “It has become quite clear that security of the Gulf is inseparable from the security of the Middle East,” he said. “Any harm to the security of our region threatens the security and stability throughout the whole world.”
The remarks carry weight because Egypt is not a party to the fighting, but sits at the centre of the region's diplomacy and controls the Suez Canal, one of the world's most important shipping routes. Cairo has spent months pressing for a negotiated end to the conflict, and Abdelatty used the Manama platform to argue that the region needs to move from managing one crisis after another to building an order capable of preventing conflict in the first place.
The war erupted in late February, when the United States and Israel launched air strikes against Iran. All six Gulf states came under repeated Iranian missile and drone attacks this year, according to The National's account of Abdelatty's speech, opening a second front that has drawn in countries far beyond the original combatants.
An interim agreement reached in June failed to secure a lasting ceasefire or to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a large share of the world's seaborne oil passes. Since then, attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure around the strait have repeatedly pushed oil prices higher and forced shipping firms to rethink their routes.
Diplomacy has not stopped. Iran has proposed that Washington lift its blockade of Iranian ports in exchange for Tehran reopening the disrupted waterway within seven days, while Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday in a renewed effort to broker a deal. The two sides, however, remain divided over whether nuclear negotiations or relief from the blockade and oil sanctions should come first.
Abdelatty's warning comes at a moment of acute tension. Reports this week said Washington has warned Gulf allies to prepare for a possible new round of strikes on Iran as early as 4 November, the day after the US midterm elections, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards have warned that any new American attack would see the war engulf a much wider area.
The economic stakes were also part of the Egyptian message. Reporting from the Dialogue noted warnings that wider escalation could disrupt maritime routes, supply chains and markets, with knock-on effects for food and energy security well beyond the Middle East. Egypt itself, heavily dependent on Suez Canal revenues and food imports, would feel those effects quickly.
The Manama Dialogue runs from 30 October to 1 November, and Abdelatty's intervention is likely to frame the remaining sessions, where Gulf ministers and their Western counterparts are expected to discuss both the military risks and the diplomatic openings. Whether his warning shifts the calculations in Washington and Tehran remains to be seen.
For now, the immediate question is whether mediation can produce a framework before the calendar runs out. Qatari efforts continue, and the reported draft framework for reopening the strait within days shows that at least the outlines of a bargain are being discussed. But as long as the sequence of nuclear talks versus sanctions relief remains unresolved, the risk Abdelatty described — a second round, more destructive than the first — stays firmly on the table.
