Pakistan saw 37% fewer terrorist attacks in October, but kidnappings rose to a 12-month high, PICSS reports
Pakistan recorded 143 terrorist attacks in October, down from 226 in September, with deaths falling 57% and injuries 71%, according to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies — but kidnappings rose 22% to 88, the highest monthly figure in a year.
Pakistan recorded a sharp fall in terrorist attacks in October, according to a new monthly report from the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), but the same report warns that kidnappings have become a serious and growing concern. The institute counted 143 terrorist attacks during October, compared with 226 in September — a decline of 37 per cent — and said several other security indicators improved alongside the headline figure.
The human cost fell even more steeply than the number of attacks. PICSS said terrorist attacks claimed 111 lives in October, compared with 260 in September, a reduction of 57 per cent, while the number of people injured dropped from 242 to just 69, a fall of 71 per cent. Those figures, reported by Arab News on Sunday, suggest that October was not only quieter in terms of incidents, but also less deadly per incident than the month before — a distinction that matters for families and communities living in the affected areas.
When attacks and security forces’ counterterrorism operations are counted together, the October toll was 272 deaths and 71 injuries. Of those killed, 53 were security forces personnel, five were peace committee members, 45 were civilians and 169 were militants. The injured included 29 security forces personnel, 11 peace committee members and 31 civilians. The breakdown shows how much of the month’s violence was concentrated in the confrontation between militants and the state, rather than in attacks on civilians alone, although civilian deaths remain a significant part of the total.
Suicide attacks, often the most feared form of violence, fell sharply. PICSS recorded only one such incident in October, compared with three in September, and said the lone October attack caused no deaths or injuries. The contrast with September is stark: the three suicide attacks that month, including two vehicle-borne attacks, resulted in 45 deaths and 138 injuries. That single comparison captures much of why October’s figures look so different — September’s toll was driven heavily by a small number of very deadly incidents.
On the counterterrorism side, the report said security forces continued operations across the country during October, killing 156 militants and arresting seven suspected militants. Two security forces personnel and three civilians lost their lives during these operations, while two security forces personnel were injured. The figures point to sustained operational pressure alongside the fall in attacks, although the report does not by itself prove a direct causal link between the two trends.
The improvement was most pronounced in the two provinces that have borne the brunt of the violence in recent months. In Balochistan, attacks fell by 46 per cent, from 132 in September to 71 in October, while fatalities from those attacks dropped from 136 to 44, a reduction of about 68 per cent, and injuries declined from 63 to 37, a fall of 41 per cent. Security forces’ operations in Balochistan resulted in the killing of 79 militants during the month, while three civilians lost their lives and two security forces personnel were injured.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, excluding the formerly federally administered tribal areas, also saw a substantial improvement. PICSS recorded 40 terrorist attacks there in October, compared with 58 in September, a decline of 31 per cent. Deaths from those attacks decreased from 90 to 38, a reduction of about 58 per cent, while injuries fell from 165 to 19, an improvement of 88 per cent. Counterterrorism operations in the area resulted in the killing of 42 militants, while two security forces personnel lost their lives.
Elsewhere, the picture was mixed. Punjab witnessed two terrorist attacks during October, compared with none in September, resulting in four deaths but no injuries. Sindh recorded no attacks during the month. Those smaller provincial figures are a reminder that national totals can hide local variation, and that a quieter month nationally does not mean every province moved in the same direction.
The report’s warning concerns kidnappings. Despite the overall improvement, PICSS said kidnappings emerged as a serious security concern, particularly in Balochistan. It recorded 88 people kidnapped in terrorist incidents nationwide during October, compared with 72 in September, an increase of 22 per cent. The institute said this was the highest monthly kidnapping figure recorded during the preceding twelve months — a trend that runs against the otherwise improving indicators and that will worry families, businesses and officials alike.
The broader context helps explain why the figures are watched so closely. Pakistan has been grappling with twin insurgencies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, both bordering Afghanistan, and has seen an uptick in militant attacks in those provinces since the Afghan Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021. Islamabad accuses Afghanistan-based militants of attacking its law enforcers and civilians and alleges that these groups are facilitated by the Afghan government, charges that Kabul denies. Pakistan regularly carries out counterterrorism operations in both provinces and elsewhere, and its military has vowed to continue security operations until militants are completely eliminated. Whether October’s improvement holds, and whether the kidnapping trend can be reversed, will be the key questions when the next monthly report arrives.
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