Pakistan's merchandise trade deficit widened by 19.7 per cent year on year to $3.88 billion in October 2026, as imports grew far faster than exports and the gap between what the country buys and sells abroad stretched wider, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics released on Friday.
The figures, reported by Dawn, Business Recorder and The News, show exports rising by only 2.8 per cent to $2.93 billion in October, up from $2.85 billion a year earlier, while imports climbed 11.8 per cent to $6.81 billion, up from $6.09 billion in October 2025. Imports were worth more than twice the value of exports during the month, leaving a monthly shortfall of $3.88 billion against $3.24 billion in the same month last year.
The deterioration was not only a year-on-year story. On a month-on-month basis the deficit also grew by 10.3 per cent, rising from $3.52 billion in September to $3.88 billion in October, as the import bill kept climbing while export growth stayed modest.
The picture over the first four months of the current fiscal year, from July to October, is similar. The trade deficit expanded by almost 16 per cent to $14.63 billion, compared with $12.61 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Exports over the four months reached $11.34 billion, an increase of 8.52 per cent, but imports rose faster, up 12.59 per cent to $25.96 billion.
The widening gap adds to the pressure on Pakistan's external account at a time when the country's foreign obligations are already heavy. A World Bank report published this week showed Pakistan's external debt nearly doubling over a decade to $135.1 billion by the end of 2025, with China the largest bilateral lender and debt repayment pressures persisting.
At the same time, the State Bank of Pakistan has warned about the pace at which imports are rising. The central bank's own current account figures, which capture the broader flow of money in and out of the country including services and remittances, are published a few weeks after the trade data, and economists will watch them closely for a fuller picture of the external position.
There are offsets. Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves recently hit a record $26.86 billion, with the State Bank's own holdings climbing to $21.56 billion, giving the authorities a larger cushion than in past episodes of external strain. The International Monetary Fund has meanwhile urged Pakistan to broaden its tax base and deepen reforms as growth rises to 3.5 per cent, a reminder that the trade numbers sit inside a wider programme of economic adjustment.
For households and businesses, the trade figures matter because a persistent deficit can feed through to the currency and to prices. When imports consistently outstrip exports, demand for foreign currency rises, and that can put pressure on the rupee and on the cost of imported goods, from fuel to machinery. The October numbers show that imbalance growing rather than narrowing.
What happens next will depend on whether export growth can catch up. The government has been pressing for higher exports, and the four-month figures show exports rising, just not fast enough. If import growth stays near 12 per cent while exports grow at less than 3 per cent a month, the monthly deficit will keep widening, and the annual gap, which already reached $39.47 billion in the last fiscal year, will grow further.
For now, the October data confirm a trend rather than a surprise: Pakistan is buying much more from the world than it is selling to it, and the distance between the two is increasing. The next test will be the State Bank's current account release and whether the coming months bring any narrowing of a gap that has now widened for four consecutive months.
Figures in this report were checked at 11:22 PKT on 07 November 2026 against reports from Dawn, Business Recorder, The News and 24 News HD, based on Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data.
This post is market news information only, not financial advice.
