The first day of talks between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi ended on Tuesday after about four hours of negotiations, with the United States calling the meeting very productive and the two sides agreeing to return to the table on Wednesday morning. It was the first time Russian and Ukrainian officials had sat down together in nine months, and the first US-brokered meeting between the two sides since February.
United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the meeting as very productive, without giving details, while US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff said there were "potential ideas to bridge differences" between Moscow and Kyiv. The talks, held in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, are scheduled to run for two days, with a second day of negotiations set for Wednesday.
The delegations are led on the American side by Witkoff and Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law, on the Russian side by Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to President Vladimir Putin, and on the Ukrainian side by Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council. The Russian delegation, now numbering 11 people, was upgraded in recent days to include deputy foreign ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, a sign of how seriously Moscow is taking the meeting.
Kushner told delegates that recent contacts with both sides had "really identified and narrowed the gaps" and that Trump was committed to achieving peace. Umerov said in his opening remarks that Kyiv was focused on achieving security guarantees and a lasting peace, and the two sides spoke in detail about the substance of security guarantees for Ukraine and the foundations for ensuring they function over the long term.
But more than four and a half years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and with Russian forces holding about a fifth of the country, Moscow and Kyiv remain far apart on the terms of any settlement, despite Trump's optimism. Under the proposed deal being discussed, Ukraine would get an end to the war, security guarantees and a roadmap to accession to the European Union, but the price of that in territory and neutrality remains the central obstacle.
The deepest disagreement is over what should come first. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov underlined Moscow's preference for negotiating a broad European security framework before tackling the specifics of the war, calling the idea of defining clear parameters for a future security architecture, and only then moving on to resolving the conflict, "absolutely reasonable". European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen took the opposite view on Monday, saying wider security talks should only follow a ceasefire in Ukraine, a position Lavrov rejected, saying the Europeans were trying to secure breathing space for Ukraine.
France said there could be no lasting peace in Ukraine without addressing European security, and that this required the involvement of the Europeans. Russia, however, has made clear it does not see a place for Europeans at the meeting with the Ukrainians and Americans, and a source in the Russian delegation said the main thrust of the talks would be trying to hammer out the key elements of a new post-war security framework for Europe. Rubio said late on Monday that any postwar security guarantees for Ukraine would need to be acceptable to Russia, or no lasting settlement could be reached, and the United States aims to expand the trilateral talks to include Europe at some point.
Kushner has proposed a new multilateral European security architecture involving Russia and European nations, modelled on the defunct NATO-Russia Council, and US officials say the only way to reach a deal to end the war is to simultaneously make a broader agreement with Russia about Europe's future security arrangements, a move observers described as a risky nod to a key Russian goal of having a greater say in Europe's security.
The new American drive for a deal has galvanised European officials into pushing for a place at the table, to seek an end to Europe's deadliest conflict since the Second World War. Whether Wednesday's second day produces anything more concrete than the first, which yielded ideas but no agreement, will be the first real test of whether this round of talks is different from the many that have gone before it.
For the people of Ukraine, the stakes could hardly be higher. Four and a half years of war have killed tens of thousands, displaced millions and left the country's east in ruins, and every round of talks raises the same hope: that this time, the men in the room in Abu Dhabi will find a way to end it.
