The Trump administration has signalled a sharp turn away from further military action against Iran, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying on Tuesday that he saw no need to attack Iran again as diplomatic efforts to end the eight-month war gathered pace.
Rubio spoke after a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Paris, telling reporters that the economic campaign against Iran was working so effectively that further strikes were unnecessary. "The economic campaign against Iran is so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations," he said, in remarks that marked a clear change of tone from the administration's earlier warnings.
His comments came hours after President Donald Trump said he saw "positive momentum" towards resolving the war, which began in late February with US-Israeli strikes. Trump had said late on Monday that further military action "doesn't seem to be a very necessary thing", while adding that the United States stood ready if circumstances changed. After meeting Qatar's prime minister at the White House on Monday, he described the US as "locked and loaded" but said further strikes were "quite unlikely" because key US allies in the Gulf "would prefer the status quo".
Tehran, meanwhile, has kept its offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington agrees to a set of conditions. Iran has effectively blockaded the waterway, the main exit route for Gulf energy shipments, since the war began, sending oil prices soaring. Its demands include an end to the war on all fronts, the unfreezing of its assets, the lifting of oil sanctions and an end to the US blockade of its ports.
Iran's top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said on Tuesday that no negotiations were currently taking place between Tehran and Washington, and that the strait would remain closed until the United States gave a clear and explicit response to Iran's seven conditions. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the IRNA news agency that "the conflict with Iran will not be resolved through military means, nor by intensifying sanctions".
Rubio rejected one of Tehran's demands outright, dismissing its call for war reparations. Iran had demanded "pallets of cash", he said, adding that this was "not going to happen" and that Tehran should instead pay compensation because it had "destabilised the region".
The diplomatic opening is being led in part by Qatar and Pakistan, which have been pressing both sides towards a settlement. The shift in Washington's language follows last week's midterm elections, in which Trump's Republicans were humbled, with the surge in oil prices caused by Iran's Hormuz blockade widely seen as a factor in the result.
On the water, the danger has not eased. The Emirati state oil company ADNOC said on Tuesday that one of its vessels had "sustained damage following an attack in the UAE's territorial waters", while the British maritime agency UKMTO reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile off the Omani coast. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said three oil tankers were on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, and new data showed 37 ships were attacked in the strait and surrounding waterways in October, the highest monthly total since the war began, with 10 more attacks recorded so far in November.
Oil markets swung between the two currents on Wednesday. Brent crude rose 71 cents, or 0.78 per cent, to $92.20 a barrel by early trading, after falling to two-month lows in the previous session when US officials first played down the need for further strikes, then recovering as the shipping attacks continued.
Other moves underlined how the region is bracing for either outcome. Gulf Cooperation Council states approved the establishment of a military command headquarters in Kuwait on Tuesday, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has moved from his home to a military base after threats to his safety allegedly linked to Iran, according to the New York Times. Whether the coming days bring a deal or a return to escalation now depends on Washington's answer to Tehran's conditions, and on whether the fragile lull at sea can hold.
