Trump’s approval holds at 32% in final Reuters/Ipsos poll on eve of midterms, with Democrats leading generic ballot by eight points
The final Reuters/Ipsos poll before the 3 November midterm elections puts Donald Trump’s approval rating at 32%, near his record low, while Democrats lead Republicans 46% to 38% on the generic congressional ballot.
United States President Donald Trump heads into Tuesday’s midterm elections with his approval rating holding near a record low, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday, 2 November, with 32% of respondents approving of the job he is doing in the White House.
The figure is unchanged from a week earlier and just one percentage point above the record-low reading of 31% recorded two weeks ago, Reuters reported. The poll surveyed 1,765 US adults online over five days and carries a margin of error of about two percentage points, meaning the small movements from week to week fall within the range of statistical uncertainty.
On the question that gives the broadest national read on the congressional race — which party voters would prefer to see in charge of Congress — Democrats led Republicans by eight percentage points, 46% to 38%. That advantage was narrower than a week earlier, when Democrats led by 11 points, suggesting the race may have tightened slightly in the final days even as Trump’s own standing stayed flat.
The generic ballot question does not predict individual races, because control of Congress is decided state by state and district by district rather than by a national vote. Political strategists from both parties nevertheless regard it as a useful gauge of the national mood, and the latest result points to a difficult night for the party in power if the pattern holds on election day.
Beneath the headline numbers, the poll points to a striking gap in how voters frame their own ballots. Among registered voters, 50% of independents said they saw their vote in the congressional elections as a vote against Trump, compared with 13% who said it was a vote for him and 33% who said the president was not a factor in their vote. That framing matters because independents often decide the closest House and Senate contests.
The cost of living dominates voters’ concerns. Some 78% of voters said the rising cost of living would be very important, or the most important issue, in deciding how they will vote. Asked which party was better on the issue, voters picked Democrats over Republicans by 43% to 32%. Reuters linked the Republican vulnerability to a surge in fuel prices since Trump launched the US-Israeli war on Iran in February, a conflict that has also driven up petrol and diesel prices for American consumers and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Enthusiasm also favours the Democrats in the final poll. Some 49% of Democratic voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting this year, compared with 33% of Republicans, a gap the party hopes will translate into a turnout advantage. Trump himself is not on the ballot, but he has repeatedly told supporters to vote as if they were voting for him, and has warned that if Democrats win control of Congress they may seek to impeach him for a third time.
The stakes are control of both chambers. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, and strategists from both parties think Democrats have their best chance of winning the House. The Senate presents a harder path for Democrats, with the party on the defensive in states including Alaska and Michigan in recent days, even as Republicans fight to retain their majorities in both chambers.
Trump closed his campaign on Monday afternoon with a rally at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, DC, after a nearly month-long campaign blitz in support of Republican candidates. At the rally he acknowledged the historical pattern against sitting presidents in midterm elections, telling supporters: “For some reason, the sitting president doesn’t win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot.” He spent much of the speech on his renovation plans for the capital, including a proposed triumphal arch that faces legal challenges.
Other polling averages tell a similar story of a president well underwater, though with somewhat higher approval figures than the single Reuters/Ipsos survey. USA Today noted that the RealClearPolitics average put Trump’s approval at 39.3% against 58.8% disapproval, while the New York Times polling average showed 37% approval and 60% disapproval. The differences reflect different sets of polls and methods, but all point in the same direction on the eve of voting.
What happens next will be decided by voters on Tuesday, 3 November, with results determining whether Republicans keep control of Congress or Democrats take one or both chambers. A Democratic House majority would give the opposition new powers to investigate the administration and block its legislation, while a Republican hold would preserve Trump’s legislative path for the second half of his term. Either way, the final poll suggests the president enters election day with a large share of the electorate voting, in effect, on his record — and with the cost of living, rather than any single foreign policy question, at the top of voters’ minds.
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