US crude output to hit a record for a fourth straight year as EIA forecasts 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027

United States crude oil production is set to hit a record high for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has said, with output expected to rise further to 14.3 million barrels per day in 2027.

In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on Tuesday, the EIA said US crude production would average 13.9 million barrels per day this year, up from 13.7 million barrels per day in 2025. Output is then forecast to climb again in 2027, to 14.3 million barrels per day, extending a run of annual records that has continued despite a sharp fall in oil prices.

Weekly production has already crossed the 14 million barrel mark. US crude output rose to a record 14.003 million barrels per day in the week ended 30 October, according to the EIA's weekly petroleum status report, topping the previous all-time weekly high and marking the first time weekly output has breached 14 million barrels a day.

The record output has come even as prices have come under heavy pressure. Brent crude, the global benchmark, has fallen sharply in recent weeks, suffering its steepest weekly fall since 2020 as a price war in the Middle East and hopes of renewed talks over Iran have weighed on the market. The EIA now forecasts Brent crude to average 104 dollars a barrel in November and 99 dollars in December, falling to an average of 86 dollars a barrel in 2027 as more oil flows from the Middle East and global inventories rebuild.

At the same time, US commercial crude oil inventories have fallen to their lowest October level since 2014, as exports rose and imports fell. The EIA expects inventories to rise again in 2027 as net imports increase, even as the United States continues to produce at record levels.

The outlook also points to a comfortable winter for natural gas. The EIA expects almost 70 billion cubic feet more natural gas to be in US storage at the end of November than it forecast in October, and it forecasts more gas in storage throughout the winter than previously expected.

The growth in American output has been driven largely by the Permian Basin in West Texas, where producers have continued to raise production even as prices have fallen, helped by efficiency gains and lower costs. The resilience of US shale production has been one of the defining features of the global oil market in recent years, and it has limited the ability of OPEC and its allies to lift prices by cutting their own output.

For consumers, the combination of record supply and falling prices has brought some relief at the pump, although the picture varies by region. For producers, however, the outlook is more mixed: high volumes are offset by lower prices, and some analysts have warned that if prices fall much further, the pace of drilling could slow and the production records could be harder to sustain.

The figures were checked at 07:00 PKT on 11 November 2026, against the EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook and the agency's weekly petroleum status report.

This post is market news information only, not financial advice.