More than 51 million Americans have already voted in the midterms, smashing the 2022 early-voting record
Early voting for Tuesday’s midterm elections has passed 51 million ballots, well above the 45.9 million early votes cast in 2022, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab, with registered Democrats ahead of Republicans in the states that track party registration.
More than 51 million Americans had already cast their ballots ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections by Saturday, setting a new record for early voting in a midterm cycle and passing the previous mark of 45.9 million set in 2022. The figures, compiled by the University of Florida’s Election Lab and reported across several outlets over the weekend, point to an unusually engaged electorate heading into the final days of campaigning.
The total climbed quickly through the week. By Friday evening, nearly 50 million early votes had been recorded, including about 22.9 million returned mail ballots and 26.8 million in-person votes, according to reports citing the Election Lab. By Saturday morning the count had passed 50.5 million, and later tallies put it above 51.3 million, with one Sunday-morning update cited by Al Jazeera putting the figure at more than 53 million of roughly 210 million registered voters.
The record matters because it already exceeds the whole early-voting total from the last midterms, with some states still offering early voting on Monday and others voting only on election day itself. Early voting began as early as 18 September in Minnesota, South Dakota and Virginia, and rolled out state by state through October, with closing dates varying widely: many states closed early voting by 31 October, some closed on 1 November, and a group including Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Wyoming offers it through 2 November.
In the 27 states that record voters’ party registration, registered Democrats accounted for about 43 per cent of early ballots tracked by party, compared with about 32 per cent for Republicans, with the remainder registered to other parties or with no party affiliation. By Saturday, that translated into roughly 10.7 million registered Democrats and 7.8 million registered Republicans in those states, according to the reports. Those figures describe the party voters registered with, not the candidates they voted for, and party registration is not available in every state, so they are not a prediction of the result.
The state-by-state picture is uneven. Texas recorded the highest early-voting total, at about 6.9 million, followed by California with about 5.1 million and Florida with about 4.7 million. In Pennsylvania, one of the most closely watched states, registered Democrats made up about 65 per cent of early ballots in the tracked data, against about 25 per cent for Republicans. In Texas, by contrast, voter-data firm L2 found Republican voters accounting for about 45 per cent of early voters, even though they make up about 36 per cent of the state’s electorate.
The surge comes as national polling gives Democrats a clear, though not decisive, lead in the contest for control of Congress. The RealClearPolling average put Democrats ahead by 51.5 per cent to 43.1 per cent in the generic congressional ballot, while a survey conducted between 28 and 30 October for NBC News found 52 per cent of registered voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress against 45 per cent who wanted Republicans to keep control. Pollsters caution that early-voting totals and party registration figures do not by themselves show who will win, since election-day voting can shift the balance.
What is at stake on Tuesday is control of Congress midway through President Donald Trump’s second term. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the 100 Senate seats, and 36 states are holding gubernatorial elections. Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the House and four in the Senate to take majorities in both chambers, while Republicans are defending the majorities they currently hold.
The campaign enters its final stretch dominated by the cost of living and the economic fallout of the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran, which has become a central issue in the closing days. President Trump, who campaigned in Iowa and Kansas over the weekend, was not expected to travel for rallies on Monday; instead he was due to deliver remarks in Washington at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, according to Monday-morning campaign updates.
Analysts quoted in the weekend coverage said major shifts in the national mood were unlikely in the final two days, but that the record early turnout itself was a sign of how high the stakes feel to voters. University of Florida Election Lab director Michael McDonald, whose team compiles the early-voting data, has noted that turnout is being driven by a mix of convenience, organised mobilisation and anxiety about the political climate.
With early voting still open in some states on Monday and election day itself on Tuesday, the final early-voting total will climb higher still. The question now is whether the record-breaking early turnout is followed by a strong election-day showing, and whether the party-registration edge seen in the tracked states holds up once all the votes, early and on the day, are counted.
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